New US military support for Taiwan could reignite tensions with China

If he agrees to this aid package, Biden threatens more hostility towards China. China has reacted harshly to the visits of Western politicians in recent months. Especially after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan in August, tensions have risen to the highest level in years. In response, China conducted large military exercises in the region in protest (see map below), and staged a war scenario.

The new military support is likely to reignite tensions between China and the United States. But armed conflict is not for tomorrow. China is not ready for this militarily at the moment. Military experts estimate that China will be equipped only adequately for a military invasion of Taiwan between 2027 and 2030.

However, this does not mean that China intends to do so. After all, the consequences will be dire. For China, the region and the whole world. A lot depends on what happens in the coming years, for example with the Taiwanese seeking independence themselves. They will go to the polls again in early 2024. But it is generally accepted that by 2049, when the People’s Republic of China has existed for exactly 100 years, President Xi Jinping wants to see Taiwan re-attached to the mother country.