‘US Elections Are Suddenly More Exciting’

Polls for the US presidential election show clear changes since Kamala Harris was officially named the Democratic nominee. Foreign commentator Bernard Hummelberg currently rates Trump as more likely to win, ‘but you can see things creeping closer.’

Although polls show a starkly different picture from day to day, according to Hammelburg, a trend is now apparent. ‘Polls look at groups. You see an evolution in how a black candidate is perceived by black voters. Black voters often stay away from the polls because they feel none of the candidates are doing what they want. ‘But the euphoria of the last few weeks has somehow got to the group.’

An important development for the final election results, as it will also mean that a large part of the group will go to the polls in early November. ‘The electorate in America has never been more active, so if you get to 50 or 60 percent, you’re quite an achievement. This is mainly the case of minorities, who often see no advantage in voting. It makes little difference.’

Polarizing moment

On the other hand, black people make up only 12 percent of the total population of the United States, while Latinos make up 17 percent. In total, that’s less than a third of the electorate, with the rest made up of mostly white voters. “She’s not in good shape there,” says Hummelberg. “It’s rising a little bit more for that group, but Trump is still rising.”

“This is definitely a very polarizing moment,” the foreign commentator continues. ‘A new pair entering the arena at the last moment makes the attack from the other side more vicious and more difficult.’ As one of the main reasons why white voters lean so heavily toward Trump, he cites the prevailing sentiment among that group that they have been increasingly disadvantaged over the years. They say: We are the majority of the country, and one president after another cares only about minority disadvantage and extra help in school. What for us?’

Credibility

So a very important constituency feels left out, and that’s where Kamala Harris’ most important work lies. Hummelberg now estimates that Trump is more likely to win, ‘but you can see it creeping closer’. In swing states with smaller disparities, things like higher turnout among black voters may be the deciding factor. ‘The question is whether the average white voter, who usually doesn’t vote, is now turning out in greater numbers. This development has suddenly become very exciting.’

Hummelberg thinks the credibility of both candidates’ presentation of themselves will be important in the coming weeks. Harris scored slightly better in that respect. ‘The way she comes across is more open-minded and a bit more positive.’ On the other hand, he stands for the traditional, unsurprising Democratic agenda of greater justice, better education, affordable healthcare and better opportunities for minorities. “These are important topics, but I don’t see a very important point of view yet,” says Hummelberg. “It will help if she really brings something revolutionary to the country.”

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