A year to go until the US presidential election: you should pay attention to this

Will Donald Trump return to the White House or will Joe Biden win a second term as president? With exactly a year to go until the US elections, US expert Tom van de Eende tells us what we can expect in the coming year.

On Tuesday, November 5, 2024, exactly one year later, Americans will go to the polls again to elect a new president. Yes, there has certainly been some debate, but the political circus doesn’t really seem to have started yet. The main reason for this: Just like in 2020, it will be Donald Trump again against Joe Biden.

The political year was shortened

In Trump is currently in the lead in a New York Times poll. so-called five-sixths Swing States, states that could make the difference between Democrats and Republicans, Trump is currently emerging as the winner. So President Biden has to work.

Usually the kick-off of the election circus takes place in the year before the elections, but this time it was different. “The political year has been shortened somewhat, both sides can still deal with it,” says Tom van ‘de Einde, US expert at EenVandaag.

First principals

Republicans traditionally start the Iowa primaries early next year. Democrats did that too, but now they’re starting somewhere else. They will hold their first primary this time in their favored state of South Carolina.

“Iowa is almost exclusively white. It’s a sparsely populated state, so it’s not right for Democrats to go there first,” explains Van ‘De Einde. “They choose a state with a population that represents the best cross-section of American society: South Carolina.”

‘More polarized than ever’

The US elections may not be paying much attention in the Netherlands yet, but for him, that doesn’t mean the campaign will get any harder. “I think it’s going to be more polarized than ever.”

“There is a large group that still sees the criminal charges against Trump as a witch hunt,” he continues. “Add the more conservative side that the Republican Party still holds in its power.” Van’de Eende expects it to be an exciting year.

No real challengers

While there is no real challenge to either Trump or Biden, the American expert sees it. “On Trump’s side, there was the governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, but he wasn’t even close to Trump, and many doubted whether he was a good fit. There was really no chance of getting rid of Trump among Republicans.”

In the Democratic Party, one real adversary has emerged so far: MP Dean Phillips. Van ‘de Einde calls him ‘the younger version of Biden’. “Inside the party they’re not happy about it, because everyone knows it’s better to give all their energy to one candidate. There’s a great fear that the opposing candidate will spend too much energy and that Biden will lose valuable. votes.”

Criminal charges against Trump

What sets this time apart from the year before the vote, according to van ‘de Einde, are the major criminal cases against Trump that will begin next March. “He will be in the middle of the first primary. For the first time in history, an election candidate will have to answer to the court.”

But it could strengthen Trump in particular, he thinks: “Hardcore Trump supporters will immediately see that it’s all a conspiracy against Trump. Trump always has the attention in the polls, even when he gets bad news. The attention is his. The fuel.”

Biden’s advanced age

Meanwhile, Biden talks a lot about his age as he turns 81 this month. A record: No president has ever run for a second term at such an old age. “Friends and foes are anxiously watching how this develops,” says van ‘de Eende.

And the fact that Biden has aged can be seen in him since the last election: “If you look at how he was 2 years ago, there is really a difference. He has a hard time getting words out, there’s a lot of it. In the previous elections he had more strength in his voice, but it’s changed now.” The president himself thinks it’s silly to make his age an issue: “He dismisses it as ageism.”

‘Successful President’

What’s helping Biden is that he’s been successful as president, says an American expert. “His response to criticism about his age was: ‘Look at what I’m doing, how effective I am.’ As he has already said, he is there for all parties.

“The economy is working like a charm, unemployment has never been lower and petrol prices have been reduced,” says van ‘de Eende. “He is a very important player on the world stage, a real unifier. Otherwise, we as Europe would never have united behind Ukraine.”

Where is Kamala Harris?

Just like last time, it’s Kamala Harris Running mate From Biden. Expectations were high when he took office, but it has been quiet around the vice president. That’s not smart, Van ‘de Eende thinks. “Because it’s so much about Biden’s age, precisely because they described her better. As a Democrat you’re not just voting for Biden, you’re voting for Harris (59) as vice president.”

There is a rumor in the White House that Harris is considered too weak for the vice presidency, the US expert knows. “She has a migration file on her plate. It’s such a difficult file that it’s almost impossible to get it right.”

Trump’s partner?

Mike Pence was vice president under Trump, but on January 6, 2021, he turned against the then-boss after the Capitol attack. Pence was in the Senate during the storm and was at risk. He sees Trump as the primary cause of the storm.

Pence ran for president earlier this year, but dropped out last month. According to Van ‘de Eende, he didn’t stand a chance because many Republicans saw him as a traitor. Vivek Ramasamy is currently running as a vice presidential candidate. The billionaire has become a ‘Trump Lite’ and is doing everything he can to eventually become Trump. Running mate Participate in elections.