As the New Hampshire Republican primary approaches: Here's what the numbers predict

The New Hampshire primary is often a good indicator of who the Republican Party's eventual presidential nominee will be. Of the past eleven elections, the winner of the primary in this US state has also been the eventual Republican Party nominee nine times. Both times a candidate did not win in this state, the eventual candidate won the election in Iowa. Never during the past forty years has a candidate won any of these two states.

Donald Trump has a good chance of winning New Hampshire after Iowa on Tuesday. But since the middle of last year, Nikki Haley has been gaining popularity. In opinion polls conducted on Sunday, Trump received 50 percent of the votes, compared to 36 percent for Haley. These polls date back to before the withdrawal of Ron DeSantis, who received 6% of the votes. DeSantis called on his voters on Sunday to vote for Trump. It is unclear to what extent his voters will follow that voting advice.

Iowa and New Hampshire don't actually represent the rest of the United States. They are white, homogeneous, and sparsely populated countries. However, the results determine the course of the rest of the election, and a win is good for donations to the upcoming campaign.