At the time, Brazil and China were emerging economies. China is now a superpower

Two old friends will meet in Beijing on Friday: Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Chinese President Xi Jinping. For the left-wing Lula, it is a challenge next to the powerful Chinese president, who was still visiting Moscow in March.

After pneumonia prevented Lula from traveling to China at the end of March, the Brazilian president is still flying to the Asian country this week. He will meet Xi in Beijing on Friday. In addition to economic interests, global politics is high on the agenda for the four-day visit. The Brazilian and Chinese presidents envision a “multipolar” world, in which the United States would be just one of several great powers. Like Xi, Lula hopes to play a mediating role in Russia’s war against Ukraine.

No other trip illustrates Lula’s diplomatic ambitions so clearly as this trip to Beijing. The Brazilian president wants to re-establish himself internationally as “the first of the last,” says Brazilian political scientist Camila Giraldillo of the University of São Paulo. “As a leader of developing countries.” His jerky right-wing predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro, had no foreign friends four years later. Lola returns “a pragmatist who sits with everyone,” according to Giraldello.

Climate preserver

“Brazil is back,” Lula said when he visited the climate summit in Egypt at the end of last year after winning the elections. But the world has changed dramatically since his last presidency between 2003 and 2011. It is simply impossible to continue where he left off, says researcher Guilherme Casarões of Brazil’s Center for International Relations. Today’s world is more hostile and complex.

The last time Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (77) and Xi Jinping (69) met, the Brazilian was at the peak of his power. It was early 2009, Lula was in the middle of his second term, Brazil’s economy was (still) running smoothly and over 80 percent of the population was support his government. Progress has not started yet. He visited Brazil as Vice President.

Brazil and China found each other with Russia and India in the proud BRIC Association of Emerging Economies (later, with South Africa, BRICS). Vladimir Putin was already in the Kremlin. While Xi and Putin have become more powerful since then, Lula has fallen from his position in his country. After his recent return, he must once again associate internationally with superpowers who are diametrically opposed to each other.

every body’s friend

An experienced politician has an advantage: compromise is one of his greatest qualities. Just as he entered into alliances with all political colors in his country, he is opportunistically active abroad. Casarões: “Brazil has no problem entering into relations with authoritarian states.” Lula hopes to balance West and East: as the savior of democracy in the United States, a climate champion in Europe, a close trading partner in China, and a dove of peace in Russia and Ukraine.

He often wears several hats at the same time. For example, green energy is high on the agenda for a Chinese visit, a topic the two countries could make good use of (despite extensive plans to extract new reserves of fossil fuels). And in China, Lula wants to re-establish itself as a conflict-neutral mediator in the Ukraine war in an effort to unite more non-Western countries behind a peace initiative.

Political scientist Casarez says such balancing will be more difficult in 2023. At the time, Brazil and China were emerging economies in a world dominated by the United States. Now China is a great power.” At the end of Lula’s first presidency, China equaled the United States as Brazil’s trading partner. Sino-Brazilian trade is now twice as large as that between Brazil and the United States. Last year, the countries did business for a record 140 billion euros.

Soybeans, iron ore and oil

“Brazil threatens to become more dependent on China,” the researcher warns. The South American country exports massive amounts of soybeans, iron ore, and oil to China. China ships consumer goods to Brazil (a lot of electronics) and invests in Brazilian infrastructure, telecommunications, the automotive industry, the energy sector, agriculture, mining, and oil extraction.

As a dove of peace, the world gives Lola a small chance. “The world is not interested in another country getting involved in this war.” Political scientist Giraldello sees “Ukraine” as the most dangerous item on the agenda. “A strong alliance between China and Russia could be problematic for Brazil’s relationship with the United States and Europe.” Lula had already raised eyebrows in the West at election time when he blamed the United States and the European Union for the Russian invasion. He has not repeated this statement since taking office.