Europe is once again under the influence of the storm: where and when will “Celine” hit? And we won’t escape from it this time either? | Science and the planet

Babbitt, Allen, Bernard… Several storms have caused disturbances in parts of Western Europe over the past week. Depression comes and goes this fall. This does not seem to be changing. Conversely, new low pressure areas will continue to develop across the Atlantic over the next week and some of them may develop into storms again. Will we really have to deal with the next storm this weekend that will be named “Selene” or “Ciaran”? Where will this storm hit? Does it reach our country as well? Are there still severe storms coming?

Last week, Storm Babbit swept through northern parts of the UK and Scotland. Scotland in particular had a difficult time at that time. Heavy rains fell, causing severe flooding, and coastal villages were quickly submerged, partly due to strong winds and high waves. At least three deaths occurred. Not long after, Storms Allen and Bernard followed, causing heavy rains, especially in southern Europe. Storm Allen delivered at least one hundred liters of water per square meter in 24 hours. Something they haven’t seen in this area for 100 years. It is already clear that we are dealing with an active stormy season this fall in Western Europe.

It looks like we will welcome another storm this weekend. The state that first warns with an orange or red symbol for a wind or storm effect may give the storm a name. There is a high probability that this time it will be done by the French, Spanish or Portuguese meteorological service. In this case the name of the storm will be “Selene”. If the UK Met Office were the first to assign a name to the storm, it would be called Ciaran.

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The jet stream will be active in the coming days and will target all of Western Europe. This atmospheric river, located at an altitude of about 10 kilometers and with wind speeds reaching more than 200 kilometers per hour, is the engine of our weather. A very active jet stream in our area guarantees variable and usually stormy weather, and this weekend will be no different.

A complex depression will take hold in western Ireland and a very deep depression core will develop on its southern side. The strongest wind field is located just south of the core of this depression. This will mainly develop this afternoon. The southwesterly winds will intensify, especially over the Bay of Biscay, and will then concentrate on the western coast of France. At sea, the winds are strong to stormy, reaching speeds of up to 110 km/h. Locally, the maximum speed may reach 120 km/h. Coastal areas could also witness wind gusts of up to 90 km/h. This mainly concerns the coasts of Brittany and the Loire region. The French weather service MétéoFrance has already issued a yellow warning for wind gusts in these areas.

Code orange also applies to flood hazards, including those caused by piling waves. In the depths of the sea, waves can reach 4 to 6 meters high, but waves can also reach 2.5 to 3 meters high on the coasts. The Spanish and Portuguese meteorological services also issued an orange warning for rising sea waters due to stormy winds in the northern coastal areas today. The wind warning there is limited to code yellow.

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This evening and overnight into Sunday, the wind field associated with the cyclonic depression will move northward across the Channel and western France. The strongest wind field will be present in the North Sea on Sunday. This will lead to a division between the southern and northern North Sea. There will be gusty easterly winds between Scotland and Scandinavia. A similar scenario to the break-in at Babbitt earlier this week.

As a result, a major storm is also expected tomorrow with choppy seas on the Scottish east coast. In the southern North Sea, winds will be temporary at strength 7 to 8 from the southwest on Sunday morning. Wadden in particular may face inconvenience from this. Our coastal region is largely spared from storms because of its favorable orientation.

Various lines of showers and disturbances will spread around the complex low pressure area this weekend, bringing the necessary rainfall. Storm Selin’s depression will also be accompanied by an active system of disturbances that will move from west to east across Western Europe from Saturday morning to Sunday evening. Relatively warm sea water will ensure the possibility of intense rainfall.

This could cause a significant increase in rainfall amounts, especially over the sea and in coastal areas. Various weather models are even calculating local rainfall amounts of up to 100 to 150 liters of water per square meter as of Sunday evening.

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The largest amounts of rain are expected mainly along the western French coastal areas, as well as along the far north and northwestern coastal areas of Spain and Portugal. Therefore, the National Weather Service issued an orange warning in these areas for the possibility of flooding due to the accumulation of seawater, whether accompanied by rising river waters or not as a result of heavy rainfall.

Just as with Storm Babbitt, the Scottish Highlands are once again seeing a lot of water. Until Sunday, more than 100 liters of water may fall per square meter as strong easterly winds push clouds towards higher elevations and rain could fall there. Taking into account the extremely wet weather we witnessed last week, we must continue to be vigilant against landslides and floods. At the moment, the yellow code has been announced there.

Storm Selene will not pass silently either. Winds will increase this weekend, becoming moderately strong to temporarily strong. It is expected that the winds will be stronger, with wind strength ranging from 5 to 6, especially on Saturday evening and during the night until Sunday, and winds will be possible between 50 and 70 km/h temporarily.

The disturbance associated with Selin will move from west to east on Saturday evening with rain. Scattered rain is expected overnight into Sunday, and during the day Sunday, alternating with drier periods. Rain is also likely to be thundery, especially in the west and near the sea. It is very mild with a maximum close to 15°C.

Anyone who thought we would be facing storms now is in for a treat. It does not appear that calm will return immediately on weather maps at the present time. On the contrary, next week European and American weather models predict another strong autumn storm near the British Isles and Ireland. The storm is expected to reach its peak on Halloween or All Souls’ Day. It could become an exceptionally severe storm, with wind gusts that could exceed 100 km/h, and perhaps even more than 120 or 130 km/h.

The forecast is not yet within the reliable period, as we still have about a week to go. But the fact that both weather models are arriving at the same scenario today gives the forecast some credibility. The coming days will bring more clarity, but the situation is certainly interesting to monitor.

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