HIn his argument he mentions the word repeatedly: ambiguity. Daniel Levy says an ambiguous agreement may have been the main reason for the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. It should have come into effect this weekend, before the start of Ramadan. It may prevent a tragedy in Rafah.
The Israeli assault on that 'last bastion of Hamas' has yet to begin, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Thursday that it was certain to happen, despite desperate appeals from the United Nations. “Especially as international pressure mounts, we must close ranks and unite against efforts to end the war,” the Israeli prime minister said.
This is precisely what negotiators in Qatar and Egypt have faced in recent weeks in Cairo: on the one hand, Netanyahu's commitment to continue the fight against Hamas (until 'total victory'), and on the other, Hamas's demand for a cease-fire – which would be final. No breaks.
The two positions seem incompatible, but ambiguity may have provided a way out. The text of an agreement is then more open to interpretation, with each side able to offer its own interpretation — especially important to Netanyahu — of coming up with it.
About the author
Rob Wregan is a reporter in Istanbul D Volkskrant. He writes about Turkey, Iran, Israel and the Palestinian Territories. Previously, he specialized in human rights and foreign affairs in the Middle East.
Levy closely followed the negotiations in Cairo. The 55-year-old British Israeli was involved as a negotiator on behalf of Israel in the Oslo Accords (1990s) and the Taba Peace Talks (2001). He was an officer in the Israeli army, president of the World Union of Jewish Students, and co-founder of the J Street Organization. He is currently Chair of the US/Middle East Project Think Tank.
A vague agreement on a ceasefire lasting several months would have allowed international actors such as the United States, the UN and Arab states to create in the meantime, Levy says, “a number of realities could be created in Gaza that would make the continuation of the war not impossible, but unlikely.” to do'.
Hamas gave way
According to Levy, it is mainly because of Israel and the United States that this has not happened. According to him, Hamas realizes that its maximum demand is impossible and is flexible enough to resolve ambiguity. “Hamas created the space for a process in which there is uncertainty about the ultimate goal of a ceasefire and the total withdrawal of the Israeli army from Gaza.”
It also relates to what Levy calls the 'blame game': parties act in such a way that they can blame the other party if they fail. According to him, Washington in particular played a sinister role in this. “The Americans refused to present a deal that Hamas could accept and Israel could reject, even if it was a fair deal.”
The former negotiator has plenty of criticism for the Biden administration. He believes he has the only way to force a solution, but refuses to use it: more pressure on Israel. 'The big story is that America refuses to use its power. Everyone can see that this is America's war. America provides all the weapons and can put an end to it. The occasional claim that Americans are losing patience with Israel pales in comparison to the steady flow of weapons, without which Israel cannot wage this war.'
Bearhaven is stupid
“Instead of a real mediator, we have an America that is retaliating with Israel, supplying Israel with weapons, vetoing the Security Council and talking nonsense about a port for Gaza. The idea that he cares.'
“The Americans are now actively helping Netanyahu to reject any deal. That is the sad state we have reached. This demonstration of America's indifference to war, Palestinian lives, its own reputation and international law is remarkable, if not surprising.
Levy doesn't expect much from the alleged rift in the Israeli government. Yes, you have Netanyahu and far-right ministers like Itamar Ben-Ghir on the one hand, and moderate ministers like Benny Gantz on the other. But when it comes down to it, Gantz also supports the war goal of destroying Hamas.
Levy sees more friction between the government and the Israeli military. 'There is a sense of treading water. Apart from causing terrible pain and devastation among the Palestinians and causing enormous damage to Israel's reputation, the military has not accomplished much in Gaza. They were stuck. There is fatigue and exhaustion. That's one of the reasons why they haven't attacked Rafa yet. They do not have the forces to defeat Hamas.
And then the other side, Qatar and Egypt. Can they put pressure on Hamas? Levy: 'Of course the answer is: not really. Yes, Qatar can expel the Hamas leadership. Awesome. What does that get us? How does that help the negotiation process?'
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