“In six months, either Prigozhin will die, or there will be a second coup.” | Ukraine and Russia war

Grosev really did make predictions that came true. About Prigozhin’s first uprising, for example. Back in January, you said that Prigozhin would turn against Putin in six months. It worked out well in the time frame I specified,” he says.

Prigozhin advanced on June 24 with his mercenaries into Moscow because he said he was tired of being constantly opposed by the Russian Defense Ministry. Grozev guessed it would be a day earlier, given the huge increase in telephone traffic at the Russian Army Command.

The mercenaries finally stopped their march near Moscow and a deal was struck whereby the Wagner Group turned to Belarus. Putin publicly called Prigozhin a traitor on Russian state television. Everyone knows what to do with the “traitors” in Russia, but Putin did not. He wants him dead, but can’t do it yet. Within six months, Prigozhin will either die or a second coup will take place. I don’t know which option it would be, but it would be one of two.”

look. Prigozhin hints at the return of the Wagner Group to Russia

From what angle will the next coup come? Grosev said, “I don’t think the elite see the point of war, unless these activists are in the war industry. But they are all silent because they are trapped in a prisoner’s dilemma. They don’t want to be the first to act or alone.”

There are two possible outcomes in the future, according to Grosev. “Either the elite will move, or they will find a way to get rid of him through a more coordinated coup. Oligarchs, ministers or intelligence services are not far away yet, but it is inconceivable that the elite would be willing to live in North Korea 2.1 with frozen bank accounts from now on. However Other stimuli, such as shifting possibilities, may also come to the fore.”

Bellingcat is a network of open source investigative journalists. It has already succeeded in exposing many Russian plots and murders.