New US peace proposal for Gaza war ‘may be too smart for either side to say no’

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken says Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu supports a new US proposal for a ceasefire in Gaza. The ball is now in Hamas’s court, but the question is whether its leaders will agree to the proposal, says Peter Wijninga, a security expert at The Hague Center for Strategic Studies.

We do not know exactly what is in the revised proposal. Blinken has not released anything on this. He stressed, however, that this could be a last resort for a solution. “His story is that if it doesn’t work now, the war will continue and the possibility of escalation will increase,” says Wijninga. Hamas is threatening attacks inside Israel and Hezbollah and Iran are also increasing the pressure.

One of the main breaking points is that Hamas wants a definitive end to the war and wants to survive as the ruling body in Gaza. Israel absolutely does not want the latter: it wants an end to Hamas. “There is no definitive end to the war until Hamas is destroyed.” Wijninga says Israel’s yes to the proposal means the country has compromised.

Netanyahu has little room for maneuver in his coalition. Far-right parties have said they will leave the coalition if he moves too far. “He is absconding because there are three corruption probes against him. That may be the reason why he continues this war.’

Hamas benefits by increasing pressure on Israel and the large number of victims helps in this regard. Hamas previously agreed to a US plan, but Netanyahu said it did not. “But Hamas responded to that proposal with additional conditions that were unacceptable to Israel,” Wijninga says, putting things into perspective. Hamas says the US will allow Israel to take the lead because the deal now has ‘bridging conditions’.

It has not been disclosed what the issues are in the new proposal. Israel had previously demanded control of two strategic corridors in Gaza, something that was non-negotiable for Hamas. Blinken heads to Cairo today, where negotiations will resume. Then goes to Qatar. This will be Blinken’s fourteenth visit to the Middle East since October 7. So far no big yield. “It’s hard for me to believe that’s the case now,” says Wijninga. “But perhaps the proposal is too smart, neither side can say no. Let’s hope.’

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