Omikron seems no less disgusting

There are no indications that the Omikron variant of the coronavirus is less satisfactory than the Delta variant. who – which Scientists from Imperial College London reported late last week Based on the latest numbers from England. In England alone, the number of hospital admissions this month is very likely to rise from the current nine hundred to one thousand to two thousand per day, The British Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies reported on Saturday. The council warned that if no additional measures were taken, the number could rise to at least 3,000.

Since the Omikron variant was discovered in South Africa in late November, scientists have speculated about its danger. The first data seems to indicate That new variant would be less disgusting than delta. About 80 per cent of hospital patients in South Africa with Covid-19 do not require supplemental oxygen. These patients left the hospital after an average of three days, compared to an average hospital stay of 8.5 days over the past 18 months. The mortality rate among these patients was about four times lower than in previous waves.

relatively young

But until then, virologists have warned that we simply cannot translate the South African data into the European situation. The South African population is relatively young, many people have already been infected during previous waves (the beta variant has hit hard here), and in addition, it is now summer in the Southern Hemisphere: the season when respiratory viruses strike less aggressively.

In recent weeks, many eyes have been focused on the United Kingdom and Denmark, two countries where coronavirus variables are being watched relatively closely. In both the UK and Denmark, Omikron’s share of positive tests has risen dramatically, as has the absolute number of infections. But data on hospital admissions are always delayed by about two weeks.

Read also: What is the best time to get a booster dose?

Now there is a preliminary analysis of hospital admissions in English. This indicates that the risk of hospitalization with Omicron is not lower than that of Delta. “Perhaps these data are more representative of the Dutch situation than those from South Africa,” answers Marion Koopmans, a virologist at Erasmus MC in Rotterdam. “So we can’t assume a milder disease at the moment.”

third shot

It is still too early to draw firm conclusions, the English modellers warn, because Omikron’s progress is just beginning in the UK. London, with its young and relatively diverse population, is still far ahead of the countryside in numbers. Death rates have not been released.

The new numbers support the increasing infection of Omikron. The reproduction number is now likely to be higher than 3. And people who have been cured of Covid-19 or vaccinated twice are five times more likely to have Omicron than Delta. The researchers concluded that the third shot protects 55 to 80 percent of infections, from data from English people who have tested positive for the virus. It is too early to say how well the booster will protect people from hospitalization due to Omikron.