Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu is sure: Ukraine will attack Crimea. And with the arms of the United States and the United Kingdom. However, former army chief Mart de Cruyff considers that chance to be zero.
While it is true that Ukraine is attacking military targets in Crimea, they are crucial to the war in Ukraine, so De Cruyff is not so quick to open up to attacking the peninsula.
Nevertheless, De Cruyff thinks there is in all probability a strategy behind Sjojko’s words. He says there is constant gunfire and threats on both sides. “Shoigu will no doubt say so in the hope that Crimea will remain untouched as a military base for the Russians,” he says. “Certainly the Russians need that base to partially supply their forces in Ukraine.”
success
In addition, De Cruyff thinks that Ukraine is not yet out to seize Crimea. It is very difficult. ‘There are two land bridges to Crimea,’ he continues. In 1940, the Germans couldn’t cross the Afsluittijk – and that won’t happen now either. The Ukrainians will not spend their real military power on taking Crimea, but instead on Donbass.
concern
According to de Gruffudd, Shojkov’s call indicates that the Russians are afraid of using the more powerful types of missiles offered by both the United States and the United Kingdom. After all, Ukraine can accurately hit targets at a distance of 250 kilometers. The Russians also have a problem jamming those missiles,’ says De Cruyff. “Overall, they are very effective weapons for attacking Russian supplies and command posts.”
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De Cruyff expects Ukraine to base its weapons mainly in areas where Ukrainians want to go the most – and give Russian troops as little freedom of movement there as possible. ‘What they particularly want is to slow down the redeployment of troops in those forward areas,’ concludes De Cruyff, ‘and that is the purpose of those weapons.’
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