Sad: The news from VRT is getting lower and lower

At VRT NWS late Friday, June 9, weatherman Bram Verbogen was allowed to tell us something about El Niño. Logical: There’s not much to say about the weather itself: it’s beautiful and it will always be beautiful. It’s good for us, but bad for the weather.

Then El Nino. This is a complex natural phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean. Along the equator in the eastern Pacific Ocean, normal, cold seawater may warm up over the course of a few years. Rising sea water temperatures can have a significant impact on the weather in large parts of the world, especially North and South America. may possess. this is important.

Weerman Verbruggen held a lot of punches to his right and left arm. Meteorologist: “It’s always a bit of a guessworker for scientists to predict whether or not it’s going to be an El Niño year.” Guessing and science? So this time the price.

Now the boy – El Niño – is there. In fact, there is not much scientists can do with this hypothesis. Weather World: “The probability (chance) of a warm summer in Australia is rising.” It has already become difficult for the average viewer. Calculating odds isn’t really basic knowledge in Flanders.

Weatherman Bram Verbruggen again: “It’s not a one-on-one relationship, the chances are greater.” how much bigger? Has the chance gone from 5 percent to – I’m writing something – 6 percent? No idea. The weather scientist himself wouldn’t know. no one knows.

Does the fact that El Niño started earlier have an effect? This is also uncertain. There is no one-on-one relationship here either, according to The Weatherman. So we don’t know much.

This El Niño forms about two months earlier than usual, so it still has “room for more development,” says NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). says climate scientist Michelle Laureux, who heads the NOAA El Niño/La Niña constituency.

This is also a science: one says this and the other says that. We won’t know who was right until a few years from now. Very interesting, but not a topic for a newsletter.

The news should show the facts: these events have happened in the world today and I can assure you: one day a lot will happen. Moreover, it is not easy to find out exactly what happened. Just think of the events in Ukraine.

In fact, El Niño is a beautiful illustration of the real science: we observe a phenomenon, but the complexity is so great that we can relate very few concrete predictions to it. Interesting for real scientists who know something about probability arithmetic and who have insight into those super complex systems, but not for Flemish people who mainly see and remember that fire in the background.

Photo: VRT screenshot