The debt ceiling vote was a test for McCarthy, the Republican speaker of the US House

Their leader, Chairman Kevin McCarthy, is trying to rally his narrow majority of 222 members to support a bill that would raise the debt ceiling by $1.5 trillion. Five Republican “no” votes would replace the law if all 213 Democrats join in opposition.

The proposal is unlikely to make it through the Democratic-controlled Senate, but Republicans hope a consensus could force Biden to negotiate after months of deadlock. Biden has pressed Congress to raise the debt ceiling without conditions, as he has done three times under Republican President Donald Trump.

Washington and Wall Street are targeting an upcoming “X date,” weeks before which the U.S. Treasury can no longer pay all its bills without action from Congress, leading to a default that would rock the global economy.

The House Rules Committee, the law enforcement agency, will consider the bill Tuesday afternoon. After the committee’s approval, a vote could be held in the House on Wednesday.

The last sustained stalemate in the debt ceiling in 2011 reduced U.S. creditworthiness, roiled financial markets and raised borrowing costs. Lawmakers don’t yet know their deadline, but financial analysts estimate it could come as early as June.

“The high risk is that they don’t have the votes this week, the deadline is before June 15, and now we’re actually looking at a month. That’s the high-risk scenario,” said Co-Rohit Kumar. Editor-in-Chief of PwC’s National Tax Office in Washington.

“If they fail, if they fail to do something, it clearly reinforces the perspective of the Biden administration: No negotiations, send us a clean debt limit increase.”

Bond markets are already sending warning signs if investors are wary. Investors expect the Treasury Department to release a new “ex-date” forecast in the coming weeks.

How many are not?

Many Republicans, from hardline Rep. Andy Biggs to Tim Burchett and Nancy Mays, have expressed concern about the bill because it doesn’t do enough to reduce the deficit. Some also worry that cuts to renewable energy tax credit programs will hurt their home countries.

“Now I’m against it,” Mays said in an interview. “By not addressing the current spending problems, we are putting our children and grandchildren in dire economic straits.”

The White House on Monday reiterated its call for Congress to raise the debt ceiling without conditions.

“We are very clear: there is no negotiation about the debt ceiling,” press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said. “It is their constitutional duty.”

Rep. Kevin Hearn, chairman of the conservative 175-member Republican Study Group, said he hoped McCarthy would garner enough support to pass the legislation and pressure Biden and his Democratic allies in Congress to begin serious negotiations.

“Speaker McCarthy will meet until the last minute and he will do whatever it takes to get it done,” Hearn told Reuters. “He certainly understands how to negotiate with members, as any speaker does.”