We asked scientists what the Omigron variant would do for the United States

To get a better idea of ​​how the omigran variant of COVID-19 is spreading in the United States, look at the ocean. In United Kingdom and South Africa – In the two countries where the Omigron variant dominates faster than the Delta or already exists – the rate of pollution is increasing, mainly because the variant is highly reversible. Current evidence suggests that patients with omigran are less likely to be hospitalized or die, and massive infection rates have put great pressure on the infrastructure of both countries.

Now that Omigron has reached the shores of the United States, we are at an early stage of experiencing the above countries. A New York City, The percentage of those who tested positive for Covit-19 has doubled in three days this week, citing Mayor’s adviser Bill de Blasio Omigron as the reason for the rise. During Tuesday’s conference for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Top federal health officials told reporters there has been a seven-fold increase in the prevalence of the Omigron variant over the course of a week.

They added that although the increase may slow after the spring, if the current trends continue, there may be a public health crisis. This is especially true if the delta variant is continuously destructive and exacerbates the problem caused by certain strains of the flu pandemic COVID-19. The former is already underway, and the latter is becoming increasingly plausible, at least in the United States based on the chronology established by scientists as to when the Omigran variable will rise.

“Based on data from South Africa and Europe, we can expect a significant increase in the number of cases here in the United States in the coming weeks,” he said. Stephen Goldstein, professor at the Eccles Institute of Utah University of Human Genetics, told Salon. Via email. “The peak of the number of cases will be higher than the peak of last winter.”

Dr. George Benjamin, executive director of the American Public Health Association, predicts that in three to six months, Omigron will become the dominant alternative in the United States.

“It depends on the high infection rate, the high number of people who have not been vaccinated and the sudden infection rate of people who have not been fully vaccinated but increased,” Benjamin explained in writing. “Aggressive injuries occur in fully vaccinated and motivated individuals, but at a slower rate.”

The basic problem is that the Omigron variant is much smaller than before. When an epidemic stops, epidemiologists are more afraid of certain things than a highly contagious pest.

Dr. Russell Medford, head of the Global Health Innovation and Global Health Crisis Integration Center, told Salon in an email that he expects the Omigron variant to be as widespread in the United States as it is currently in the UK, because “the Omigron variant is more convertible.” Significantly from the delta.

The Omigron variant is “highly contagious and can lead to a wave of new infections,” says Dr. Monica Gandhi, an epidemiologist and professor of medicine at the University of California at San Francisco, added: “There is now evidence that Omigran is less serious than previous strains.” What scientists do not know yet is, “Is this caused by a characteristic inherent in the increased cellular immunity and strain of the population in December 2021.”

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Aside from contagion, Omigron’s next big concern is the issue of vaccine resistance. Over the past six months, the prevalence of delta variability has decreased due to the number of vaccinated Americans – and despite the low immunization resistance in the Delta, most hospitals and deaths from COVID-19 in the United States are non-vaccinated. -The vaccine provoked the CDC leader To describe the situation “Non-Vaccinated Infection”.

However, Omicron may be more resistant to the vaccine than Delta, mainly for reasons related to: Spike-eiwitmutaties. B.1.1.529 (the official name of the Omigron variant) contains 30 mutations close to the spike protein – specifically COVID-19-producing mRNA vaccines that target this protein. Spiny protein, located around the central domain of SARS-CoV-2, contains vertebrates similar to those found in sea urchins. The virus uses those bumps to infiltrate the body’s cells, such as using Picox to open the lock, while vaccines help a person’s cells make proteins in the bumps, against which the immune system produces antibodies. If mutations alter spike protein adequately, the body’s immune system may be incapable of recognizing the virus because it is primarily there to fight another version of spike.

“Two vaccines, usually two vaccines, provide no protection against infection and its spread,” said Dr. William Hasseltine, Founder and former CEO of Human Genome Science and currently Chairman of the Access Health International Group, a global health research organization. Said Salon. “Three vaccines provide the most temporary protection after three months.”

William Hasseltine, founder and former CEO of Human Genome Science and currently President of Access Health International, noted that vaccines are effective in reducing hospital admissions and mortality by ten times, but “it does not eliminate it”. Vaccines “do not protect people who are not like you from the effects of the disease, which is very dangerous,” he said. Just because the vaccine is defensive, Hazeltine said: It does not prevent the virus from entering the body, it fights it once and for all.

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Goldstein drew attention to another warning about the undeniable benefits of existing immunity (either through vaccination or infection).

“While encouraging on an individual basis, this immediate increase could lead to epidemics that are so severe as to overwhelm already burdensome health resources,” Goldstein noted. “A double vaccine or previous infection, even if severe, does not provide significant protection against infection and the transmission of Omigron. In order to protect themselves from the forthcoming Omigron outbreak, people need to be vaccinated and / or strengthened as soon as possible.”

Medford was very cautious and confident in its assessment. The Omigron variant is “more resistant than the delta neutralizing antibodies produced by first-line MRNA vaccines, and with other types of vaccines,” he wrote to Salon, adding that it was “fortunately the third dose of the MRNA vaccine.” , Or booster, often adjusts to resistance to this vaccine. He believes that “especially the third booster dose”, MRNA vaccines may be effective in preventing hospitalizations and deaths from serious omigran infections, although this has not been properly documented, he said.

When it comes to long-term changes in the Ommigran variant based on the Govit-19 infection, the two experts who spoke with Salon used the same word: “endemic.”

“The epidemic is moving toward the spread of the disease,” Benjamin told Salon. “This means that targeted closures of contact species, personal isolations, activities or events, and the occasional outbreak of vaccines / re-vaccinations for those who need them. Finally, when the disease becomes severe / dangerous, you can rest.

Medford had a similar focus.

“In the future, COVID-19 strains such as Omigran and others will become as endemic as seasonal flu,” Metford explains. “Today’s data with current vaccines guarantee that the complete vaccine (3 doses) will be more innovative and effective against structurally different viral variants.”

If Govt-19 really becomes an epidemic, policymakers need to consider it. In hindsight, Gandhi (who did not use the word “endemic” in his email) suggested that it would be prudent for public health officials to admit their policies to hospitalization instead of contagion because the Omigron variant would lead to an increase in mild cases. .

“We are likely to receive many cases of Omigran worldwide, but – as the severity of the disease is reduced – the impact of this variable (and restrictions such as mask commands and capacity limits) will depend on hospital admissions for COVID-19.” He noted. “If the Omigran variant is contagious but less severe, immunocompromised individuals are more likely to be diagnosed, resulting in increased immunity in this population, even those who have been vaccinated – which further enhances immunity.” I hope peace will triumph over epidemics around the world.