What is at stake?

• Judith van de Holsbeek

  Climate and Energy Editor

We have seen and felt the consequences of climate change around the world this year: floods, droughts, and weeks of heatwaves on land and at sea. Heat records have been broken in several places, and 2023 is likely to be the hottest year on record. What should be done to ensure it does not get worse?

Once again, this question is of central importance at the 28th United Nations Climate Summit, which begins this weekend in Dubai. More than 200 countries are negotiating at COP 28 what steps they must take to keep temperature rises within limits: in any case well below 2 degrees and preferably below 1.5 degrees, as agreed in Paris in 2015.

The chance of this succeeding is getting smaller and smaller. A recent UN report shows that under current policy, the climate is headed toward a temperature rise of about 3 degrees. Is there anything that can be done about it? Four questions for the Climate Summit in Turbulent Times.

The summit will be difficult, Wopke Hoekstra predicts. As head of the European delegation, he will try to raise ambitions to the highest possible level. But that won’t be easy. Even in quiet times, it’s difficult to get on the same page, Hoekstra said at a news conference last week.

The interests of petrostates, emerging economies, developing nations, and small island states are simply diverging. But now, with the wars in Ukraine and Gaza and tensions between America and China, things have become “infinitely more difficult,” Hoekstra believes.

Just this morning it was reported that US President Biden will not attend the climate summit. He would be too busy with the war in Gaza. Last week, the United States and China, the world’s largest emitters, reached an agreement an agreement They renew their commitment to the Paris Climate Agreements.

They also stressed that more climate action is needed. An important reference also to other countries. This means that Russia is expected to be less likely to act in an obstructive manner, so as not to antagonize friendly China.

In Paris, countries agreed to examine their climate plans every five years to see if they also meet their climate goals. This year, for the first time since 2015, such a temporary balancing act, a “global assessment,” was carried out. This shows – surprisingly – that most countries are not yet on the right track.

So more efforts must be made, but what exactly? This is what Dubai is all about. In any case, there is one point on the agenda that most countries can agree on: tripling sustainable energy by 2030.

A condition for this is the availability of sufficient financial and technological support to continue meeting the energy needs of rapidly emerging economies.

Another important point is fossil fuels. Global warming is caused largely by the burning of oil, gas and coal. If the matter had been up to the European delegation, there would have been one delegation to divide Included in the final text on fossil fuel moratoriums, except for emissions that can be offset or captured. Strikingly, this will be the first time that such a text on all fossil fuels has been included in the final climate summit agreement.

Attempts have been made at several climate summits to break this taboo, but these attempts are obstructed by oil states, among others. So it will be tried again this year, in Dubai of all places.

There are serious doubts as to whether the head of the summit, Sultan Al-Jabr, will defend it. In addition to being Minister of Industry, he is also Chairman of the state oil company ADNOC. The UAE is the sixth largest oil producer in the world.

They extract more than 4 million barrels of crude oil per day and plan to significantly expand their production in the coming years, as well as explore new fields. “It’s like asking the tobacco manufacturer to negotiate a smoking ban.” He responded Climate organizations in Kafr.

The suspicions are not entirely unjustified. We came across today BBC Documents have been published showing that in preparation for the summit there were also plans to discuss oil and gas deals with various countries.

Reports appear more positive about the role of reparation in expanding the scope of sustainable energy in developing countries. He had previously said that “money must flow” towards poor countries. He himself can set a good example, for example, by pledging a large sum to the Climate Damage Fund.

certainly. The establishment of this compensation fund was a great success for developing countries at the previous summit, but no agreements have yet been reached on who is entitled to it and who has to pay it. This is what countries hope to decide at this summit.

It will also relate to the other fund, the Green Climate Fund. Developing countries can depend on this for their energy transition and adaptation to the consequences of climate change, such as drought or floods.

This year, for the first time, the $100 billion promised to be raised annually was included, but experts say this is only a small part of what is needed to help these countries. Therefore more commitments are needed.