Will Putin rule until his death? “It is difficult to imagine a situation in which he would resign and retire.”

On Friday, Vladimir Putin re-announced his candidacy for the elections scheduled for March 2024. The question is to what extent we should take the upcoming elections in Russia seriously. Is there a possibility that the balance of power will change? According to Russian correspondent Geert Grote Koerkamp, ​​this chance is almost non-existent.

Was Putin expected to run for president again?

“Yes, this is not surprising. Everyone assumed so. The question was more when he would announce it. To do that, he first had to wait for the election date to be announced by the Federation Council, which happened last Wednesday.

“There were two possible moments when he could announce his participation. Next Thursday, when he will hold a major press conference for the first time in two years, and at the same time hold an hours-long telephone session with the Russian people, or Friday in the Kremlin. Today was the most obvious moment given the room.” The beautiful speech he spoke and the presence of Russian soldiers who were decorated with medals for their services at the front.”

How seriously do you take the upcoming elections?

“It is important as an event, but it is not an election in the strict sense of the word. Putin’s critics prefer to call it an “election event.” Since 2004, Russian elections have suffered from widespread fraud. This can be proven with statistics. So you might be wondering whether this election still makes sense for Putin, since the outcome is already clear.

“Putin, on the other hand, is very concerned that it will be a big event. He wants to show, based on a percentage of the vote, that he has the support of a significant portion of the population. You can go a long way with fraud, but it becomes more difficult if he doesn’t show up.” No one to vote.”

Does this expectation exist?

“The turnout in presidential elections is often higher, but overall there is not a lot of enthusiasm. There is little incentive to vote when it is already clear who will win.

In addition, next year’s elections will last three days for the first time. In principle, the longer elections extend, the more difficult they are to monitor and the more vulnerable they are to fraud. The risk of fraud increases due to the absence of foreign monitors and the absence of local monitors. For example, the head of the most important local organization “Golos” was in pre-trial detention for several months. This was recently extended until April, when the elections actually ended.

What do you think are Putin’s chances of being re-elected in the March elections?

“This chance is almost 100 percent, unless crazy things happen. There is no possibility of normal political competition in Russia. Officially, there will be a number of other candidates on the list of candidates, such as the leader of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, Gennady Zyuganov.

“But the Communists belong to the ‘tolerant’ opposition, and the real opposition is not involved. Opposition leader Alexei Navalny has been in prison for years and is therefore unable to participate. Then there is some speculation about other possible candidates, including a former member of a liberal opposition party , but the question is whether they will be accepted into this process.

In late 2011, massive anti-Putin protests broke out in Moscow in response to fraud in parliamentary elections. What are the chances of such protests occurring in March?

“There have not been protests of this size since. Until a few years ago, several thousand people would occasionally take to the streets, but over the past year and a half there has been an unusually harsh crackdown on public expression of opinion. More than twenty thousand people were arrested, and hundreds disappeared behind bars, some for years. “Anyone who takes to the streets faces a huge risk.”

The last time Russia held a presidential election, in 2018, Russia had not yet embarked on a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Has the current war in Ukraine increased or decreased Putin’s popularity?

“This is difficult to measure, partly because opinion polls in Russia only measure what people are willing to share, not necessarily what they actually think. There is an impression that there is a majority that would prefer everything to go back to the way it was, and for the state of war to end.” Active support for work in Ukraine always comes from the minority.

“There are increasing signs of unrest among family members of men sent to the front who have no hope of returning home. These family members, often women or mothers, are increasingly declaring their dissatisfaction online. This is still very small, But the government is monitoring it closely.”

Will Putin rule until his death?

“This is very likely. It is difficult to imagine a situation in which he resigns and retires like American presidents. Since an arrest warrant has been issued against him by the International Criminal Court, he has become more cautious when traveling.

“The constitutional changes in 2020 make it possible for him to remain president until 2036. There is a lot of speculation about his physical condition, because everything related to his private circumstances is shrouded in mystery. We have to rely on his public appearances on television, and he seems very active so far.